Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

401
FXUS61 KBGM 020724
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes made this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold start today, then dry and slightly milder conditions
before lake effect snow returns midweek over north central NY.

2) A clipper system Friday into Saturday may bring accumulating
snow and another brief shot of arctic cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold start to this morning as mostly clear skies allowed
temperatures to fall near zero. Brief ridge builds in today
allowing temperatures to recover with highs in the low to mid
20s. High pressure keeps conditions dry over the region along
with partly sunny skies. As the ridge pushes east on Tuesday,
westerly flow follows along lake effect snow showers over north
central NY. A short wave pushes into the region by Wednesday
morning along with a cold front. This will shift winds to the
Northwest and allow showers to advance into central NY. Lake
effect is expected to continue into Thursday night with light
accumulations, mainly over north central NY.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Flow shifts southwest Friday ahead of an incoming clipper system,
cutting off any lingering lake effect. This system is expected
to track over our region Friday into Saturday bringing the
potential to see accumulating snowfall. As this disturbance
moves into our region, it also brings another shot of arctic
cold. Temperatures at 850 mb are expected to range -24C to
-26C. This will keep snow ratios rather high and has the
 potential to increase accumulations, but it is still not
 certain at this time how much. Good news is this burst of cold
 air is only expected to last a couple of days at most as
 models show a ridge attempting to build in early next week.
 Despite this the weekend will again experience temperatures
 near zero with potential for more cold weather headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies have cleared for many locations early this morning, with
VFR conditions for all of our NY TAF sites currently. A band of
lingering MVFR clouds extends from east of BGM down south to
AVP, with AVP expected to remain MVFR until about 08z early this
morning. Indications are that another band of MVFR/IFR clouds
will develop over Central NY toward daybreak (10-12z) and this
could also have some freezing fog, mist and/or snow flurries
associated with it...especially at SYR and RME. RME remains MVFR
through about 17-18z today, while SYR could stay MVFR fuel alt
until later this afternoon (22z). Tempo for possible IFR vsby
restrictions was added for these two sites between 11-14z this
morning. Confidence overall is low to moderate on exactly where
this rather narrow band of MVFR/borderline IFR clouds will
develop and move through the day.

ITH and BGM should see the clouds fill back in with 010-020ft
CIGs between about 12-18z today at these two sites, before
becoming VFR in the afternoon and evening. ELM is expected to
remain VFR for the entire taf period based on the latest data.
AVP should become VFR before sunrise and remain VFR for the rest
of the taf period.

There is some sporadic LLWS at AVP and possible at ELM over the
next several hours, with winds at 2k ft agl out of the NW at 35
kts...the LLWS lasts longest at AVP, until around 12z this
morning.

Surface winds will be NW at 5-15 kts today, becoming light and
variable under 5 kts after sunset into tonight.

Outlook...

Late Tonight Through Tuesday: Stratus clouds redevelop and
expand, with widespread MVFR CIGs likely areawide.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning: Lingering MVFR stratus
clouds around the region. A few snow showers possible across
Central NY.

Wednesday Afternoon: Period of VFR possible at ELM, BGM and
AVP...better chance for BKN MVFR CIGs to remain at ITH, SYR and
RME in the cold NW flow.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or
less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to
occasional lake effect snow showers at SYR and RME.

Friday...Restrictions likely with a system bringing periods of
snow, transitioning to snow showers and blowing snow Friday
night. Squalls possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ057-
     062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...MJM/MWG